Oscars Predictions Show - S2E7

On today’s show, we’re thrilled to be joined for the entire show by Mark Schaffer, a friend and fellow cinephile, who is sitting in for our first annual Oscars Prediction Show. We’ll be picking our Will Wins and Should Wins in all of the major categories and most of the minor ones in advance of the big show on Sunday, March 15.  

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:17

Hello and welcome to Beyond the Slipstream. I'm Matt, and I'm here with my brother Justin. And on today's show, it's our first annual Oscar Prediction Show. And right off the top, let me say that we are thrilled to have with us in studio today a dear friend of mine and certified cinema buff, Mr. Mark Schaefer. Mark will be chopping it up with us today as we give our picks for who we think should win and more importantly, who we think will win in less than a week's time when the Academy crowns its 2026 winners. Or is it the 2025 winners? Does anybody know? I don't, but what I do know is that this event, which I love, is way too late in the year. I feel like we've been discussing these films for months and months because we have. Well, it'll be done and dusted come Sunday, and we got to get these picks on the record. So without further ado, cue the orchestra. It's Oscars time. All right, folks. Welcome to the show. As I said in the intro, thrilled to have my friend Mark here with us uh in studio, looking looking sharp in the Pirelli podium cap. Welcome, Mark. And matching flannel. Uh Mark and I Mark and I love uh discussing movies at my place of business uh where he is a regular uh and one of my daytime favorites. Uh so yeah, thrilled to uh have you with us today um to talk Oscar picks. We got a whole lot of picks to get through. Justin, you take notes on your end. Mark, if you're trying to remember your picks, you take notes on your end because I'm gonna I'll handle my picks. We're doing uh who we think should win and who we think the academy will choose as the winner. Um, and we're gonna start way down on the bottom end of the categories and kind of work our way up into the big stuff towards the end. So, first on the slate is best production design. Uh, your nominees are Marty Supreme, Sinners, Frankenstein, Hamnet, and one battle after another. Uh who wants to get you know what, Mark? We're gonna give it up to you. We're gonna let you go first. You're our guest. Uh, who do you like in best production design category and why, briefly?

SPEAKER_00 2:31

Well, up until a couple of weeks ago, I would have said that one battle after another was going to it'll be part of the sweep. But I'm starting to think that might not happen. I've noticed some uh momentum change. But for me, I've seen all those films, Frankenstein was in a class by itself. Frankenstein was such a old style Hollywood spectacular made by a real auteur that you just don't see a lot of it. You know, that was not it it it was production designed by committee, but through the eyes of one one of our really great filmmakers. I don't know if it's going to win. I think one battle after another will probably win, but Frankenstein should win. That's how I feel about that.

SPEAKER_03 3:27

I I agree. It's it's it's my pick for for both will win, should win, in my opinion. Um I I you're absolutely right. It gives you it gives you an old-time movie feel, everything feeling practical and not complete CGI. And you know when they're you know, so even the like the scenes on the ship, uh you almost could feel the creak of the wood in in in in the ship. You know, you could you could hear the tension in in the rope. It was it it was spectacularly done, you know what I mean. The acting is great, but I visually speaking, it was uh just a tremendous movie.

SPEAKER_00 4:14

That was one of the best opening scenes I've seen in a long time. That put me back to the opening scene of La Miz. If you recall. Interesting. Interesting the opening scene of La Miz where they're pulling that boat with 5,000 prisoners. I mean, opening scenes are so important. They are, and that just and that one grabbed you, and these are long stories. And I don't know, I don't remember Detorro having that good an opening scene in any film before this, but that opening scene was always amazing visuals with Del Toro.

SPEAKER_03 4:52

But it well, you're right, you're absolutely correct. It was a it was a really, really good opening scene. Like I said, you know, and I and I said this to Matt when we were talking about the nominees, is that, you know, uh I, you know, going into it, I was like, do we really need another Frankenstein movie? And it felt as fresh as when Kenneth Brana did it, you know, 25 years ago or however 30 years ago now with with De Niro, where you were like, you know, do we need another Frankenstein movie then? And I I kind of feel the same, the same way with this, where it it was enough of a it was enough of a of a different kind of feel to it that you know in the it like this is the first time where I felt so um I felt so much empathy for the you know for the monster and that it was everyone else around him that were the real monsters. And it he does need a great job of of making you feel that.

SPEAKER_01 5:57

What is interesting wait wait wait wait a moment please guys, guys. We have so many categories to get through.

SPEAKER_03 6:05

You're right, you're right.

SPEAKER_01 6:06

Let's make sure we keep our comments on the particulars of that category and let's keep them brief. For best production design, I'm going to be the spoiler. I think you both make good cases. Um with Frankenstein, for me, I don't know. There was a lay there's a level of surreality that could be good or bad, and I haven't decided which, and I'm gonna use that to rule it out. I'm gonna say Sinners should and will win this category. Um I love the authenticity of the Marty Supreme design. It really, really, really looked authentic. And I think um I think that's where I'm gonna go with casting because talk about authenticity. The faces in that movie were insane. But I think as it comes to the physical uh spaces within the movie, um I'm gonna go with Sinners and I think the Academy will too. Let's move on to best film editing. Your nominees, uh Marty Supreme, F1, Sinners, One Battle After Another, and Sentimental Value. Now I would have liked to have gone back and let's do reverse order. Okay, we'll go so you'll be in the middle, and Mark and I will offer that going first. Um so uh uh every one of these films I would have loved to have gone back and watched with a nod toward the editing because to be honest, I have a hard time speaking to this category, and I'm keen to hear what you guys might have to say. Um I I'm leaning Marty Supreme. I feel like there was there was some effective work there, um, and especially given the sort of chaotic nature of that movie. Um some fast cut editing, I think, as I recall, played played well into the overall feel of that film. But what are your all thoughts?

SPEAKER_03 8:11

So my my first thought is I I agree with you. If we were only if we were only talking about the ping pong scenes in Marty Supreme, I probably would give it. But to me, I feel like F1 really used editing to ratchet up the the drama or the um that's probably not the word I'm looking for, um the suspense of of the racing, and and so I would probably say that if Marty Supreme probably wins, but my pick would definitely be F1.

SPEAKER_01 8:45

I I a lot of critics I I have heard, I think are leaning in that direction. I think there's a lot of people out there that want uh F1 to get a get to get an award. And Mark, perhaps you know, isn't the makeup of the academy voters um people from across like all spectrums and walks of life? And so you get a lot of like groundswell from from the the the actual people that work in the trades, that work in the uh you know production departments and stuff like that to to to put votes in the hands of some of these movies?

SPEAKER_00 9:16

Well, what happens is um for all of these categories, the only people who vote are the editors in the in the academy. The editors? Editors vote for no no people now. Oh, that vote in those categories. In those categories. The only people who vote are the professional craftspeople. You can you can double check that. And that really now is because the only people who really understand these categories are people who do it every day. Um I I I'm thinking I'm I'm thinking about when we saw one battle after another. I think that's gonna win. There's just something about the the the kinetic the kineticism of the editing in that film. Um as silly as it all is, but for me, that's the one that takes you on the biggest ride. Marty Supreme, I mean we've talked about this a lot, the Safety style of movie making, I just don't think they like in Hollywood. I think I think it's because it's too too indie for Hollywood. Hollywood is still like a pretty conservative place. I don't think they like Safety's I don't I I don't think they like his style of of of filmmaking, even though um I don't think he's ever w I don't I I don't think anything they've done has been recognized by the Academy yet. Because I think those films make them nervous. I mean those y his editing style is so it's almost like to me it almost looks like uh experimental filmmaking from the 60s and 70s.

SPEAKER_01 10:56

It is so it is so nerve-wracking. But that's like doing something new with it at least.

SPEAKER_00 11:01

I mean that's the academy or anything. Yeah, obviously they do.

SPEAKER_03 11:06

His point is his point is they like safe. They don't like yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 11:11

Or safer, safer. Fairy editing. All right, well, I'm gonna I'm going with Marty Supreme as should win, but I'm picking F1 as will win. Um, Mark, what are you gonna weigh in? I'll I'll go ahead and just keep track of your picks right here um for you. Just give me your will win. Who do you think will win? One battle after another. Okay. And Justin, you're keeping you're keeping track of yours on your own. Yes, I've got mine on my own. That should win. All right. That should win. Um, and Justin, you said you said F1 should and will.

SPEAKER_03 11:39

No, I'm saying F. I want F1, but I think Marty Supreme is gonna win.

SPEAKER_01 11:44

Okay. Interesting. I I I have it reversed. I have that reversed. Okay, we're moving on to best visual effects. Okay. Wow. Uh, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, F1, Sinners, and Avatar Fire and Ash. I will admit I have not seen two of these five films, The Lost Bus and Avatar Fire and Ash.

SPEAKER_00 12:06

Did you see The Lost Bus? No, I've I've been trying to. I can't seem to get a copy.

SPEAKER_03 12:11

I did see this. This is the McConaughey fire movie, right? Yeah. Fire movie? It's like he uh he rescues kids in the middle of a wildfire in California. It's on Apple TV.

SPEAKER_01 12:22

Interesting. You saw it? Was it good?

SPEAKER_03 12:24

Yeah, it's pretty good. It's pretty good. Um I tell you what, with that being in the mix, it's hard not to give it to that, but I I mean, like it's it's one of those categories where I feel like an a you know, an Avatar is going to win it. You know what I mean? I don't see Jurassic Park winning it by any way, no way Jurassic Park. But I could see I could see very easily Avatar taking it, especially considering how good they did the water in the last one, you know, and I have not seen the new one, but I'm sure they do fire just as well. So I'm I'm gonna probably say I'm gonna say that uh I'm gonna say that that the Lost Bus should win, but I think that it'll be Avatar, because I think it's gonna be a big you know, a big blockbuster that takes that category.

SPEAKER_01 13:21

I'm 100% with you. I'm doing the exact same thing. Yeah. Um same with you, Mark. Yeah, Avatar's gonna win. Okay. That will then bring us to I think uh best documentary feature, a category that I'm excited for. Um I have heard since since being so over the moon for Mr. Nobody Against Putin, uh, I heard a review of that thing and they were not liking that movie. They they had all kinds of problems. And I'm wondering if I need to rethink this category. Um, so shall I begin on this one? Sure. So best documentary feature your nominees, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, cutting through rocks, the perfect neighbor, the Alabama solution, and come see me in the good light. So uh the the real quick primer on these, I'll give you a one-sentence description for each of these. Mr. Nobody Against Putin is a uh is a a teacher-turned documentarian who is charting the the mind control measures uh and the the re-education measures being put forth by Putin in Russian in Russian schools uh uh on the ground from from a from a guy who's there on the ground as this is happening. And uh cutting through rocks. This is the only one I haven't seen. This is about an Iranian woman who is a politician and has uh made a made a hard run at politics in Iran in a country that's very you know misogynistic, uh to say the least. Uh the perfect neighbors, horrible uh uh doc about the castle doctrine or the standard ground laws in uh in Florida. Um the Alabama solution, another uh right around right Florida's next door neighbor, Alabama, and the horrors of the prison system uh in Alabama. And then lastly, Come See Me in the Good Light is uh kind of a simple doc about a couple who are dealing with a uh cancer diagnosis and the the fallout from that. So um I was really over the moon for Mr. Nobody against Putin after I saw it. I thought that it was just like so well done, and I was like so impressed with this dude. But I guess I was overlooking the problems that some of my critics had with it, which is this guy is basically like shooting film of everybody that he knows, everybody in his life, his friends, his neighbors, the kids in the school, everybody. Um, and he is smuggling it out to uh filmmakers in the West who want to get this story out there. And the big question that on the lips of all my critics was what about these people that are getting left behind? Because the movie opens with him making an escape from the country at night. So you've already you you you already know up front that this guy is gonna make some sort of escape attempt, uh, which then you know I guess on on their minds the entire time is like this guy's gonna get out of here and show this stuff to the world, and you know you don't think the his the family members, the teachers of the school and everybody's gonna get retaliated against? You think the Russians are just gonna say it's okay? And I guess I hadn't been thinking about that. I mean, when it comes to kids, you you wouldn't think that the government would would crack down on on the children, but certainly see it in Putin's Russia happening to adults. I mean, the thing that I loved about this movie was that it was so prescient for our current moment in this country when institutions seem to be failing and you know free speech is being crushed, and and you know, these right-wing agendas are being pushed and pushed hard. It got me thinking about like, could I could could I be looking, can I be watching the future of my country in five years? You know, is is have they gerrym so gerrymandered? Has has Trump gotten so much power that come the next presidential election, they're gonna crack down?

SPEAKER_03 17:18

You know, it's entirely impossible.

SPEAKER_01 17:20

They're gonna declare emergencies and say, oh, all the all the elections are gonna go to the governors, you know? Like, I don't know, which is why this thing hit me so hard. Um and the the other ones they they hit me hard as well. I mean, the but they were more just like I don't know, the perfect neighbor was just a tragic story, but but felt it could be a one-off kind of a thing. Um, you know, it's one incident that happened in one place. Yes, it it tells a bigger message, but you know, it was one thing. What is your pick? It's tough. Um bringing it back. Yeah, all right, let me make my pick here. I think I still think Mr. Nobody Against Putin should win. Okay. Um but I am going to say that they give it to the Alabama solution. Yeah, I'm uh I'm done.

SPEAKER_03 18:26

I agree. I think it's gonna be Alabama solution. Uh I'm gonna I'm uh that's me for both. Um especially considering that the way that most of the filming was done with the inmates essentially running the camera. Uh I think that, you know, considering the material and how they had to to put it together, I think that um I think that it it it breaks a little bit of ground as far as the you know how they got that story out. It's not just the story in and of itself, but it's also how they got it out, which I think sets itself apart from from the other movies.

SPEAKER_00 19:08

Mark. I haven't seen any of them, but based on the way I understand how documentaries are are uh are apprehended in the academy, I would give it to come see me in the good light. I think they're gonna go I think they're gonna go with the cancer victim I I'm gonna make that pick.

SPEAKER_01 19:29

I'm glad that that I'm glad that pick got representation in this conversation because that's what the academy loves.

SPEAKER_00 19:36

Yeah, yeah, yeah. They love suffering. And it was good. It was it was more than anything, they love suffering and they love overcoming adversity. Yeah, there's the whole industry is based on women suffering, overcoming adversity, and and usually that's what wins. And then they'll you can see them on stage already. That's an interesting statement, Mark, and we're gonna let that one lie. Um sorry, just a heads up.

SPEAKER_01 20:02

You can edit it out if you want. Before we get to the main categories, uh, we've still got like eight categories to get through. So I know I went long on the last one. Some of these let's just like make picks in the next up is best costume design. We've got Marty Supreme, Sinners, Frankenstein, Avatar, and Hamnet. Best costume design. Um Mark, why don't you go first?

SPEAKER_00 20:25

Yeah. This is a tough one. Um I wasn't enamored as many of them. Uh I've seen them all. I think they might go for Hamnet. Because they like that period of ill of the beast and recreation. That's pretty accurate, Justin.

SPEAKER_03 20:49

Uh I think Frankenstein takes this one as well.

SPEAKER_01 20:54

And I am going to agree with you on Frankenstein. Uh yeah, I think so. I think should I think should end well on Frankenstein for me.

SPEAKER_00 21:06

Um I have something to send you. I'll send you both. Uh next interesting. Next up is best animated feature.

SPEAKER_01 21:15

Uh I have only seen one of these. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not gonna make a book, I'm not gonna make a uh pick in this category, but if either of you would like to do it briefly and let's move on. Your nominees here are Arco, K-pop demon hunters, little omelie or the character of Brain, Elio, and Zootopia 2. I believe my kids have seen three of the five.

SPEAKER_03 21:38

I I I'm going to assume that they they can't give this to K-pop Demon Hunters and that something like Elio probably wins. I don't I don't know. I haven't really seen any of them, so I think Zootope will win.

SPEAKER_00 21:51

They love it. Make $400 million. All right, so you're pickings you're you're gonna make a pick here, Mark? Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 22:00

And I'm putting in Elio as my prediction.

SPEAKER_00 22:04

Movies that make $400 million, the Academy likes. You know what they also like? They like movies that have a lot of people in them. A lot of people get employed. All right.

SPEAKER_01 22:17

Um That will bring us to Ah, this is a good one. Best International Feature. I'm I'm excited for this one as well. Um, Justin, why don't you kick us off? Our nominees are the Secret Agent. It was just an accident. Sierrat, The Voice of Hind Rajab, and Sentimental Value.

SPEAKER_03 22:38

Uh I'm only halfway through this one, but I I I think that I think that the choice is going to be sentimental value. I think that's going to win this category.

SPEAKER_00 22:58

What did win?

SPEAKER_03 23:00

Uh Secret Agent.

SPEAKER_00 23:02

Oh yeah. Mark, your thoughts. Yeah, I think Sentimental Value is gonna win. I think there's a lot of momentum to the board now. Sentimental Value, huh? It did really well in the uh accuracy. I can't remember. I won.

SPEAKER_03 23:17

It won like I want to say that it the let's see, hold on real quick because I have it. Yeah, Skarsgard won the Golden Globe Um for it. And but Wagner Mora did win for the Secret Agent. So it it's a split category. It's split in that sense, but I I think that I I just think that it's it's sentimental value. I really do.

SPEAKER_01 23:38

All right, I am going with Should Win, it was just an accident and will win the secret agent. Um I think I think it was just an accident was one of the big best picture snubs that a lot of people talked about. Yeah. Um, I think uh Panahi is um one of the most important filmmakers, Capital I important filmmakers of the past 20 years, in in a way, um and a singularly unique talent. And uh that film was incredible and it did so much with so little, a couple of locations and a van. And and and just a incredible cast of characters with an incredibly compelling question at the center of that of that movie. Um, that was you know, a tale as old as time, and yet at the same time completely of the moment. A great movie. Let's move on.

SPEAKER_00 24:35

What'd you think of the the ending just for uh for a sec? Uh what do you think that was going? Was that in his head? I thought it was one of the best endings of the year. I did too. Was that in his head? No, I don't think so. Oh, you don't think so?

SPEAKER_01 24:49

No, I'm not sure. All right, we'll we'll chop it up on that one later, but we need to move on. Um we're gonna go to best original song. You've got Train Dreams, which I think I spoke about on the podcast earlier. Um, if you actually listen to the song as the credits are playing at the end, there's some weirdness happening at the end of that song that was fascinating. Um, you've got Dear Me from the original documentary Diane Warren Relentless. Uh, it's by Diane Warren um and performed by Kesha. Uh I watched that documentary. I knew nothing about Diane Warren. Um, and it's it was a really cool documentary. And because I watched that, I guess I that's the one that I really want to win. Um, you've also got Golden uh from K-pop Demon Hunters. You've got I Lied to You, which is the song that's over the big set piece in the middle of uh of uh Sinners, and then you've got this Sweet Dreams of Joy, which is like an opera song from this movie Viva Verde, which also looks like an interesting picture. I watched the trailer for Viva Verde. It's about this like it's like it's like kind of a retirement home in Italy for retirees who are really into music and who want music to be a part of their lives in the end of their life in the end of their life. And they've got all kinds of different people renting out uh apartments in this big like complex, this big apartment building, but there's music that's like they got like a recording studio there and performance spaces and you know people that are in the music world that are there to just like facilitate music to happen amongst all these seniors and their singing groups and bands and all kinds of stuff. So I know that will be a very feel-good documentary to watch. However, uh, I do not think that the academy is going to give it to them. I think the academy is going to give it to Golden. And uh Dear Me is the one that I want to win because Diane Warren has never won an Academy Award and has been a nominated like nine times. Um, so that's why I want it to win, but I think Golden is going to win. Before I saw that documentary, I would have said Golden deserved it because that song is an absolute earworm banger. It's incredible. Um, it's one of the catchiest things ever. But anyways, um Mark, did you make your pick? No. What do you what do you who do you like, Mark?

SPEAKER_00 27:06

Oh, you want to go back up? Yeah. Um I think Golden will probably win because you can't stop these people.

SPEAKER_02 27:18

Who?

SPEAKER_00 27:18

Golden Golden. Yeah. I saw I saw them do it on what did they do it? They did it on some show, didn't they? I think they did it on the Golden Globes. Is it a more recent one? I think they may have done it.

SPEAKER_01 27:29

That would make sense. The song's called Golden. You want to do it at the Golden Globes.

SPEAKER_00 27:33

Yeah, I I don't know.

SPEAKER_03 27:34

I I agree. I agree with Mark. I think Golden's gonna win. Um personally, I think that I lied to you should win, but my guess is they will split this category. They'll give Golden the song, but they're gonna give score to Sinners.

SPEAKER_01 27:50

Yeah, I agree to that. Well, speaking of which, we're going to a best original score, and Justin, I think you've just weighed in on your pick for who will win. Do you think Sinners score should win?

SPEAKER_03 28:02

Uh I do. I do. I think Sinner. Um the music in that mov, like you I to nominate this movie and not let it win something for music is would be an absolute travesty, in my opinion. Because like it's not gonna win the big categories, it's not gonna win, I don't think it's gonna win director, I don't think it's gonna win any of those big ones. Um but I I think that you could, you know, I think that Kugler probably picks up an Oscar somewhere in this, and but I just think it would be a tragedy if they if they didn't give the music an Oscar for this movie. It's it's just too good.

SPEAKER_00 28:44

Well, it won what the bat it won it won something. It was it won best score. Was it the Baptist?

SPEAKER_03 28:51

It won but it won score at the Golden Globes. Sinners won one score. It it's so I'm I'm going with the Golden Globe split. So they that's exactly what happened, is what I said. Was they gave the song to Golden and score to Sinners at the Golden Globes. I think the exact same thing's gonna happen here.

SPEAKER_01 29:10

Mark, what do you who do you like? Yeah, Sinners is gonna win. Um, and you know what? I'm I'm right there alongside both of you, Justin. You make a great case. I honestly that's again like like with the editing, I'd love I'd love to take another pass at some of these films with my mind on the score, with my mind really on the categories, and I just did not have the time to do that in a lot of these films.

SPEAKER_00 29:29

I would just love for Johnny Greenwood to finally win. He's written some of the greatest films for and it's just again, the Academy just doesn't appreciate that level of I don't know what's too avant-part. It's too avant-part. It's a brilliant score.

SPEAKER_03 29:45

Yeah, it really is. I just I but it the music was such a center point to the movie in centers and played such a big role that I just don't see how you can't how you how you could not give that movie because I don't think it's gonna win the song. Now, I could be completely wrong, and they could give song to to I Lied to You, which it totally would deserve, and then they give the score to somebody else. I just don't see it happening.

SPEAKER_01 30:10

Isn't the score for that movie that Isaac Gorensen guy? It's Lud Ludwig Gorenson. Yeah, Ludwig Gorensen. Yeah, so so he is like the darling of the academy. He's he's the he's the next John Williams, you know. Yeah, like he sees John Williams in waiting. So um, all right, well, let's move on to Best Cinematography with Marty Supreme, Train Dreams, Sinners, Frankenstein, and One Battle After Another. This is an awesome category. That's a tough pick. Who wants it? Who wants to go first on this one?

SPEAKER_00 30:38

All right, I think Sinner's is gonna win because they love that cinematographer. Which is which is who? I can't remember her name, but she's she's she's a real darling right now. I've been reading a lot of articles about her. If Sinners are gonna win cinematography. I wish. Man, it's tough. I mean, Frankenstein was unbelievable. You know. It would be nice if it won, but I think Sinners is gonna win.

SPEAKER_01 31:05

Um, alright, you're picking Sinners. How about you, Justin? Her name is Autumn Durald.

SPEAKER_03 31:11

Um, I think one battle after another is gonna win this one. I do. Um I think I I I think that it should and it probably it will as well, so I'm I'm going both on that.

SPEAKER_01 31:38

I think I think train dreams should win.

SPEAKER_03 31:45

Um it's a beautiful movie, I just don't think it's big enough.

SPEAKER_01 31:50

I think that might be the one the one award it wins. Um I think one battle will win.

SPEAKER_03 31:56

Well, and and I've already said that Train Dreams has probably one of the single my one of my single favorite shots of any of the the the big movies this year where he he has that he like nods and he's like in one time and then like when his head comes up it like it's moved forward in time like you know, like 10 10 years or 15 years.

SPEAKER_00 32:20

The jump cut. And the other and the other thing, uh the other thing I'll say about that.

SPEAKER_01 32:25

It is the it's it's the sh the single shot, the single image from any movie this year that has stayed with me the longest, I think, is the image of him dead in his bed months and months later when nature has begun reclaiming that cabin. I that that just goes straight to the bottom of my soul, that image. So uh we're doing good, guys. We got a couple minutes and we got just the two screenplay categories left uh before we take a break and move on to the big boys. First, we're let's start with adapted. That's gonna be Begonia, Train Dreams, Frankenstein, Hamnet, and one battle after another. Um it's one battle. Yep, I agree.

SPEAKER_00 33:06

There's no argument.

SPEAKER_01 33:07

We're all in lockstep, even though I know that Train Dreams is a book that like multiple people when I mentioned that movie said to me, I read that book. Um, but I think should and will um one battle. Yeah. Uh so on original screenplay, we've got it was just an accident, Blue Moon, Marty Supreme, Sinners, and Sentimental Value. Original screenplay. Uh Justin, who do you like?

SPEAKER_03 33:34

Okay, so I think Kugler gets the Oscar here because he's not gonna get it for directing. So I think they I think that he will end up I I whether or not he deserves it, I don't know. They don't give it to Safty, no, no chance. But I I just I I don't know. I just I feel like this has Ryan Kugler written all over it because he's not gonna win in the big category.

SPEAKER_00 34:05

Kind of he is gonna win something, you're right. Um Did he win the go? Well, they don't have they don't have a screenplay or anything. Do they have screenplay in the BAFTAs? I think they did. Do they have screenplay? I don't remember. Um yeah, I'm really torn. I mean my I'm gonna put down sinners, but you know, for me it would be Blue Moon because that was that was incredible. Uh did you see Blue Moon? Yeah, I think Blue Moon. Yeah, no, and I agree, but I also think that that I know what you're saying.

SPEAKER_03 34:40

It it's I don't think it's big enough.

SPEAKER_00 34:42

That's his problem all year. It's not big enough. It's too small a film. Yes. And one time you could get away with that.

SPEAKER_03 34:50

Now not anymore. Now, I I am that m that it's gonna come up later, so hold on. I'll I'll hold it. I'll hold my comments for later. What about you, Matt? That just leaves you.

SPEAKER_01 35:05

I think it was just an accident should win. God, that's a that is a tough one. Who do I think they're gonna do?

SPEAKER_00 35:17

Mark, who did you say? I think they may give it to Kugler. Okay. Uh but uh, but for me it would be blue moon pretty sure, but it's not gonna happen.

SPEAKER_03 35:34

This is gonna be tough for Matt because Matt loves Blue Moon. I know.

SPEAKER_00 35:39

And who told you about Blue Moon?

SPEAKER_01 35:42

You didn't tell me about it. You mentioned it. I would have don't worry, I would have found Blue Moon without it. Okay. Um I was raving about it. Oh god, uh you know what? I'm gonna give it the sentimental value. Okay. Um, all right. Last category uh before we break. Best no. Oh, that was the last category before we break. So um, yeah, some good picks. Uh we got through that. Stay with us. We are getting into the big boys next. The acting categories, best director, best picture. Stay tuned. Don't miss the Team Bust, our weekly podcast about pro cycling, pro cycling, and oh, did I mention pro cycling? We're kind of obsessed. Dropping into your usual podcast feeds every Wednesday. All right, we are back. Now we're gonna get into the top-of-the-line categories here, but before we do, I need to put out a little caveat there. Mark and I have gotten beverages during the break. So we've got this fine IPA right here. We also got a little whiskey riding on the side. It's uh just afternoon on a Monday, and we are wanting to do what we're wanting to do. So let's get into it starting with best supporting actress. Your nominees are Tayana Taylor for one battle after another, Amy Madigan from Weapons, Woon Me Mosaku from Sinners, L. Fanning in Sentimental Value, and Inga Ibstadter Lilias also for sentimental value. Justin, who do you like?

SPEAKER_03 37:29

Um I really like Teana Taylor for one battle. She made a uh a huge mark on that movie. Um do I think she'll win? No. I I think that it's it. I think it could be it's most likely to be Inga Ib's daughter, uh, Ilias for sentimental value. I think that that wins. I don't think the L fanning is going to, or Masaku for sinners. Um I would love to also see Amy Madigan win for weapons.

SPEAKER_00 38:06

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 38:07

Like super great. Like, if anybody in this category deserves it for the whole, you know, the whole movie, it's her, but I feel like Deanna Taylor did such a tremendous job in her five minutes in that movie that it it's it's worthy of recognition.

SPEAKER_00 38:28

Okay. Amy Madigan's gonna win because they love Amy Madigan. You know, she's been around forever, like she said in her speech, and they love like body of work and people who don't get recognized. You know, she's married to Ed Harris. She's done really good work for a long time. And they people just love this character. I mean, I haven't seen the film, so I'm just saying You didn't see my vibe, my vibe is no, I don't do horror film. My vibe is like they like they just like people who've been around a long time and haven't been recognized. And this you you'll see this a lot.

SPEAKER_03 39:09

I agree with you. I I my initial my initial gut when I wrote out my notes for the for um for the nominees, which I just copied over into these, into this, was Amy Madigan to win. And I so I I you're absolutely right. They love to give it to somebody that hasn't got one and they're getting later in their career.

SPEAKER_00 39:34

It's a company town.

SPEAKER_03 39:35

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 39:36

What people don't realize is that it's basically a trade uh show for people in the business. I mean, they they're just congratulating themselves for like surviving. You know, I mean, uh Ed never won. Ed Harris should have won sometime along the life. They love to give it to people who and it's interesting, it's the kind of film that, you know, horror film out of the box for her, right? She's done a lot of more, you know, straight stuff. Complete, like out of nowhere. Where did she come? Where did that caracot her? How how did she get the job? That's the part I'm curious about. Oh, let's get Amy Madigan. Why? I don't understand that part.

SPEAKER_03 40:18

I assume that Ed Harris has been nominated and just hasn't won, correct? Hasn't won. And he should win. I would I'd be interested to see who who beat him when he has been nominated, just so that just to see if those films have aged well enough to to feel like that he deserved to lose.

SPEAKER_00 40:39

I didn't even know what he got nominated for. I'd have to go look. I'd have to look at it. Glenn Gary Glenn Ross, maybe? Pollock? I'm not sure.

SPEAKER_01 40:46

Yeah, yeah.

unknown 40:47

Wow.

SPEAKER_01 40:47

I like Pollock too. All right. So it I believe that Woonmi Musaku from Sinners won the Golden Globe. Like a big surprise too.

SPEAKER_03 40:56

No, it was Tayana Taylor won the Golden Globe.

SPEAKER_01 40:58

No Masaku won't she didn't win.

SPEAKER_03 41:02

That's weird. I have her highlighted from for Oh wait, oh she won the Golden Globe.

SPEAKER_00 41:07

She won the Vaftta.

SPEAKER_03 41:08

The Vafta. Yeah. Yeah, Tayana Taylor won the Golden Globe.

SPEAKER_00 41:11

You're right. She did win. And what is her name? I could never figure her name. Wouldn't he? She was great. Masaku Masaku. But there wasn't a lot of screen time. And you gotta think about that.

SPEAKER_01 41:23

Well I I am in agreement that the Academy, well, I don't know.

SPEAKER_03 41:31

I I don't think by the way, Madigan was not nominated for the Golden Globe, I don't think.

SPEAKER_00 41:42

She won the actor.

SPEAKER_03 41:44

No. Oh, yeah. She might she might have been she was probably nominated in the actor category.

SPEAKER_00 41:51

She won the sag. The actor award. And that had a lot of weight right now.

SPEAKER_03 41:56

Yeah, I didn't see the sag.

SPEAKER_00 41:57

So the sag is important. But yeah. She won the actor for that. And they they went crazy over her win. So just the vibe in the room suggested to me that that might roll over. Very interesting. Very interesting. All right. You know what, Mark?

SPEAKER_01 42:13

Fuck it. You've you have made you have made that case at the 11th hour for me. And I am saying Amy Madigan should and will. Should and will for Amy Madigan. I'm logging. I'm letting it. I thank you for that. And we're going to move on to Best Supporting Act Core. Your nominees are Delroy Lindo for Sinners. Benizio del Toro for one battle after another. Jacob Ilordi for Frankenstein. Sean Penn for one battle after another. And Schleden Skazgod Sentimental Value. This is one of the categories that has been talked about all year long. Benicio. So let's roll through this. Delroy has never won an Oscar. Benicio has the best supporting, I believe, right? Yes. I'm pretty sure he's a good one. Why didn't he play from like 20 years ago? From like 20, yeah. Jacob Alordi obviously has never won an Academy Award. Sean Penn has won Best Actor at least once. Twice. Did he win Best Actor? Mystic River and uh Milk. Harvey? Milk. Harvey. Milk? Yeah. Stage won twice. And then Stellan Garsgaard never won. And a lot of people are like, okay, so you've got you've got they're they're gonna rule out Del Toro because he's already won before, even even though everybody adored this performance. I I I I think I'm I'm a half a degree less on that performance than every critic that I've ever heard talking about it. Okay. But the the the one bit and Penn has already won one. Alordi's got his whole career in front of him, so it comes down to Skarsgard versus Lindo, two. Guys who have never won, which way do they go? First of all, what do you think of that logic? And then if if that is the logic, which way do you think the Academy leans here?

SPEAKER_00 44:10

I think Sean's gonna win. I mean if it was a spectacular proposal. That's a cartoon character. But it was a cartoon character in the book. Okay. The whole book was a car was like a satire.

SPEAKER_03 44:25

I agree with I agree with I agree with he deserves to win for this. Okay, but I also think that that four guys in this category deserve to win this. 100%. Like this is this is the only one that that I can eliminate outright is Jacob Ballorty. He's new, it was good, but there's no chance that he wins.

SPEAKER_00 44:47

Not this year, but he's gonna win.

SPEAKER_03 44:50

He was very good, but he's not he wasn't as good as any of the rest of them. Now, Sean Penn, I think Matt's right. I think he's he has won too much to win, in my opinion. But the it was a tremendous performance. It it is Oscar worthy 100%. Del Toro, I think it's really down to Del Toro, excuse me, Skarsgard and Delroy Lindo. And he makes a good case for Delroy Lindo, and I would love to see Delroy Lindo win. In my heart of hearts, in these five people, the people that I would like to see win, if it's if we're going off of body of work and not having a chance, and finally having a chance, it's Delroy Lindo. I agree. But I really think that Stellan Skarsgard wins, personally. Or Del Tora, I do. I think Stellin Skarsgard's gonna win.

SPEAKER_01 45:40

Well, you gotta make a pick.

SPEAKER_03 45:42

My pick, uh the well, I'm doing my my I Stell and Skarsgard will win, and I want Delroy Lindo.

SPEAKER_00 45:51

What do you like? Yeah, well, Sean's gonna win, but I would love to see Delroy win. That's right. I remember him in like that great uh Spike Lee film. Yes. You know, about the five guy, the five brothers. He was incredible. I love that.

SPEAKER_03 46:04

I love that movie. I was telling Matt, he's also in the Cider House rules.

SPEAKER_00 46:09

And Body of work, right?

SPEAKER_03 46:11

Body of work.

SPEAKER_00 46:13

Body of work, so that's what you get.

SPEAKER_03 46:15

He's in like his he is of an extremely unlikable character in the Cider House rules. Okay. He is an extreme. And so he can play, he can play both sides of that coin. That the the the guy that you absolutely can't stand, and the guy that you absolutely love in every you know, to your core. And and it speaks to his but you're absolutely right, body of work. And so I would love to see him win. I just don't think he's going to.

SPEAKER_00 46:49

I think Sean would love to have him win. All right, well, I think I agree. He doesn't even need it.

SPEAKER_01 46:55

Based on what everything that you all you guys are just saying, I'm I'm giving him should and will. I think they're gonna do the right thing.

SPEAKER_00 47:01

I think maybe it's time for him because he's done amazing work for so long. Body of work is really important in in awards, because again, it's it's a company town. Yeah, and we're getting you're getting guys get older than the biggest.

SPEAKER_03 47:14

You could but you can make the same argument for Stone Skarsgaard. All right. I don't know much of I don't know enough about him. He has he has a tremendous, he's been in Hollywood blockbusters, he's been in you know the art films, yeah. He's held his his weight all over the place, and yeah, you know that's what makes it it's really hard because you can say the same thing about Del Toro. You have three guys with tremendous bodies of work, but you're absolutely right. One of them has one an Oscar already.

SPEAKER_00 47:42

So by the way, how many Skarsgars are there? We my wife and I talk about the there's you need a you need a chart. There's four. I mean but then there's Scarsgarden and there's okay.

SPEAKER_01 47:56

Well, there for the for the for the question of the for this question right here, they're all one. Skarsgard and Sarsgard. Can you name all four? No. Peter. Let's see if Justin can do it. Here we go.

SPEAKER_03 48:08

Of the so you have Stalin, obviously. You have go ahead. Uh and of course I have the worst with names. I'll get them five minutes after you ask me. Uh the one from from it, which is I got it's you're right, it's hard to keep them straight. And I hate when you put me on the spot. Names are my worst thing ever.

unknown 48:28

Oh no.

SPEAKER_01 48:29

No, don't look it up. Don't look it up.

SPEAKER_00 48:30

I'm not a type of thing.

SPEAKER_03 48:32

Hands free.

SPEAKER_00 48:32

Okay.

SPEAKER_03 48:33

Straight move.

SPEAKER_00 48:34

I'm not. I'm just looking at saying I'm gonna do um.

SPEAKER_01 48:41

It's gonna be a good thing. I can't remember remember one of the names.

SPEAKER_03 48:46

Alexander is one. Alexander. Alexander's.

SPEAKER_01 48:48

That's Stellin Star. That is Stellan Star Skarsgard's son.

SPEAKER_03 48:51

Yes, and he is extremely good looking.

SPEAKER_01 48:53

And he's and he's also a fantastic actor.

SPEAKER_03 48:55

And he's a very good actor. Alright, so there's Alexander. I'm trying to try to like get the the letters. Uh I'm trying the one from it's the one that's escaping me.

SPEAKER_01 49:06

And then there's the one that's not related to these people. I think that's Stellensgard. That's Peter Skarsgard. Yeah. He's so Peter Skard.

SPEAKER_00 49:13

Also very good.

SPEAKER_03 49:16

Yeah. Also very good. Um God damn. Is it Joe? Is it Joe?

SPEAKER_01 49:22

Joe, there's not Joe. Oh, you're in the you're going the right direction. There's no Joe, it's like a low, it's like a low-rent, monosyllabic, just like American guy name. It's not Joe. Spike's. What is it? Just tell me. It's not Mike. It's not John. It's Bill. Bill Sarsko. Who's he? He's the guy from it. Yeah, Bill Sarko. All right. That was a serious tangent we just took. Let's get back on track. All right. So for supporting, we went, we went actress, actor. So for act for Maine, we're going to do actor and then actress. So we'll take that, we'll take the men first on this one. Okay. Uh, your best actor nominees are Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, Timothy Chalamet for Marty Supreme, Leonardo Diprio for one battle after another, Wagner Mora for the secret agent, and Ethan Hawke sneaking in there for Bloom's second Oscar nomination of 2026 or 2025.

SPEAKER_03 50:22

Alright, before we before we pick, alright, I want you guys to keep in mind that both Chalamet and Wagner Mora won Golden Globes for this in the the split actor categories.

SPEAKER_01 50:35

Oh, right. One's comedy and one's drama. Yes. Interesting. Because let me tell you something. Marty Supreme ain't no comedy. And I'm assuming that's the one that he won for comedy. Yes. I don't remember. Here's the thing.

SPEAKER_00 50:49

Um forgot the thing. Moving on.

SPEAKER_01 50:54

Um, Justin, what what is your pick for best actor?

SPEAKER_03 50:57

Um my okay, so here is here is and I and I and I want to put this energy in the world, so I'm picking him for both. Uh I'm picking Ethan Hawke. My man. I feel like it's a big thing.

SPEAKER_00 51:09

Wouldn't it be great?

SPEAKER_03 51:10

Yes. Okay, so this is when when you brought it up earlier, it's it it this is where I I I kind of said I was going to mention this later.

SPEAKER_02 51:18

Okay.

SPEAKER_03 51:18

It's body of work. He has lost out in some big spots. He has been in some iconic moves, he's been in movies that are iconic to movies that are you will forget tomorrow, but he he brings it every single time. He has done the avant-garde movies with like the Link later stuff. And you know, like Body of Work. You know, Hollywood loves him too. He's a fixture in Hollywood. Now, and this performance is absolutely remarkable. Incredible. He does an incredible job in it. Unbelievable. I think he will win. I think he should win. Um I I've decided after watching Marty Supreme, I just don't like Timothy Chalamet. I think that's why I kind of turned my nose up at most of his movies, because I just I I find him just to be an unlike.

SPEAKER_00 52:08

I'm gonna defend Chalamet.

SPEAKER_03 52:10

I'm not saying he's a bad actor, I'm just saying I don't like him.

SPEAKER_00 52:13

The problem is there's a timid the idea of Chalamet is like the soft boy, you know, he's the guy, he's the soft boy, he's the actor style of any. It's called a soft boy, right? Yeah. But he's really good in uh a reigning game in New York, which you should see. It's a Woody Allen film with L. Fanning. He's great in that. He's just a great uh he's a good, you know, he makes a lot of money for a lot of sh but he really can act, okay? I have no problem. Yeah, he was great in Complete Unknown. I loved him, I have no problem with that.

SPEAKER_01 52:44

And and I also loved, I also loved during the promotional period of Complete Unknown, when he went on SNL, that was that was a hilarious episode. He he could do sketch comedy. He did three songs, not two, he did three as Bob Dylan. Right. He and and he and he covered all the bases as Bob Dylan. I know I talked about this probably on the show last year, maybe not for a yeah, when he did, he started off with like Dylan Goes Electric, the sunglasses, and was a rocker. And then he comes out for this like for or he does this like two-part thing. He does the rocker, and then he he walks to the side of the stage, sits down, and does like a weirdo, like one-off song with just the piano player and him singing, just like so genuine, right up in your face, like you're sitting there hanging out with him on the stoop one night. And then he comes back for the third song and he gives you exactly what you have been dying for, which is like the Bob Dylan acoustic guitar number. Not one of the big songs, a deeper cut. What song did he do?

SPEAKER_00 53:43

But I remember here's the thing he learned to play guitar while he was on the uh uh uh working on Dune. Yeah, don't sleep on Shalomer.

SPEAKER_03 53:52

All right, look, here I'm gonna give you guys I'm gonna give you guys a different perspective. All right, and this is why this is why I do not feel like he deserves the win. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 54:02

And it's we're not saying that, but you just you you just said I don't like like Shalomer.

SPEAKER_03 54:07

But I'm gonna tell you why I don't like him. All right, because he is he has quietly crept, not quietly, he has loudly stepped into a lot of great things, all right. And he is a very good actor and he works very, very hard. But he reminds me of you know the student that knows exactly how to get to exactly to where it to the end. And he hasn't, in my opinion, he needs to put the time in. He he and he feels like he deserves the win.

SPEAKER_00 54:43

I get that, but uh, you know, when he marketed Marty Supreme playing Marty Supreme, that didn't go over well with the academy. And now with this ballet stuff, he's in big heads. Any actor I'm not saying he's uh not unwilling to take risks, but he said stupid things ballet, he and that really pissed off a lot of people know nothing about ballet, about opera. Ballet and opera. Yeah, and that was really dumb on his part, and his agent freaked out when she said that you're gonna have to apologize to you know with the ballet people.

SPEAKER_03 55:18

He could be they'll take you down. I really think that he feels entitled because he works really hard and he does these great movies and he puts in the work for the movie and he becomes the character that he feels like he deserves to win. And I just I don't think he's not ready. Let me my response. He's not ready.

SPEAKER_01 55:36

All right, good. He an academy doesn't think he's ready. Timothy Chalamet is this generation's Leonardo DiCaprio. He's right in his career where Leonardo DiCaprio was in his career. He is going to get great roles as the years go on. And let me tell you what the challenge for Timothy Chalamet is going to be. And Leonardo DiCaprio navigated this particular challenge as good as anybody ever has, and that is his taste. He has got to pick the right movies to get in. And Leonardo almost never makes a misstep in that in that uh instance. He is always working with interesting directors, he hooks up with the best directors. He's like, Yeah, Martin Scorsese, that could be my guy. Yeah, I'll do whatever I can possibly do with that guy because that guy's the best. And Shalomet needs to do that. And I think working with the Safties who have a proven track record of having their own, they're they got their own lane, they are doing their own thing. Right. And and this is another thing I want to say about Chalamet. It's hard to go in and play a guy that's really unlikable. Yeah, for a leading man type to go in and play an unlikable guy that takes, you know, that takes some balls. So I give him credit for that. I don't think he's gonna win here either. I don't think the academy's gonna award this. Like, like you were saying, they just don't like this movie because it's gonna take in. Don't sleep on Chalamet. My pick. Dude, I've watched 25 movies with Chalamet in it. I get it. I know, I know. My pick. I'm going with Chalaman.

SPEAKER_03 57:04

I have not seen Rainy Day in New York.

SPEAKER_01 57:05

See it. I'm saying Ethan Hawk should and will.

SPEAKER_00 57:08

Mark, what is your pick? Man, it is that tough one. I think Michael B. Jordan is gonna win. I think the momentum shifted. I like that. And I'm gonna do that. I think the momentum shifted. I'm glad to see that representation. And you know what? I went out and looked at Michael P. Jordan's IMDB. The man's been in like, you know, like a lot of shots. Yeah. But you know what? After after Black Panther Creed, he's still trying to get into good roles. There's still a big issue for like African American leading guys to get the next role. He's doing stuff that he can't get the next. He should be in SA Croswell.

SPEAKER_03 57:49

He's in one of Matt and I's favorite shows we did, you know, three weeks of podcasting on, or five weeks of podcasting on. The wire. The wire, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 57:57

That's a long time ago. One of my he's been working for getting a hundred scripts a day a week a week, but he's not getting, I don't see the growth from even Black Panther. Well, he's not getting those kind of great, good scripts for African American acquaintance.

SPEAKER_01 58:17

Let us hope, let us hope that much like Leo with with with uh Marty Scorsese, that Michael B. Jordan continues to work with Kugler. Now, at some point he needs to make something. He's gotta get it out. He needs to make something with somebody besides Kugler that is a good cycle for it. But that is a good but that's a good connection that they have there. Yeah, he's he's Kugler's muse. And maybe he also maybe he also hooks up with some of the other, like, I think the the best like working black directors right now in America. Well Jordan Peel. I'd like to see him do something with Jordan Peel, and I'd like to see him do something with uh who's the guy that did um that did the movie with Lake Keith Stanfield.

SPEAKER_03 59:00

Uh there's a guy that will win an Oscar one day.

SPEAKER_01 59:05

I need some more. No, I can't think of it. Think of it. The dude He did that movie where Lakeith Stanfield was like a telemarketer. It's like people can say Spike Joe. It's not Spike.

SPEAKER_00 59:15

Thank you for something. Yeah, thank you for that was a sorry for bothering you first. Yeah. Sorry for bothering? Yeah. That was a great film. Who the hell was that? Yeah, I can't remember that. But that guy, we'll look it up and put it in the show. I I don't understand why after you come out of look uh like you know Black Panther, where you make like $300 million for Hollywood, you know, you don't get the next and the next thing you see is like 5.9 on IMDB.

SPEAKER_01 59:38

Yeah, he's gotta be trusty, man.

SPEAKER_00 59:39

Well, that's the agent, that's the management, that's the team. So get this guy in, you know, like A-list films. Yeah, he needs to work with a Paul Thomas Anderson.

SPEAKER_01 59:49

Or he or or like a uh a uh Christopher Nolan. He needs to get one of those pictures, maybe a P. T. Anderson. This happens a lot for really A-list people who don't know. What about a Wes Anderson?

SPEAKER_03 1:00:00

What about Michael B. Wes Anderson? How about a Tarantino? Or a Tarantino.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:04

Yeah, well, he's quit, right?

SPEAKER_03 1:00:06

He's out, right? Yeah, I guess that's you know is never out, he's never out. It's he's out he's out until something piques his interest. All right. It's been a while.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:16

So people forget really easily. So Justin and I are aligned. We're both saying Ethan Hawk shouldn't will, and you're saying I would love for Ethan to win, but all right. You know, it would be great. No, I like it. That's good. All right, so let's so let's be great. So let's move on to Best Actress, and then it'll take us down to our last two, the biggest two categories, IMO. Best actress. So we got Emma Stone uh for begonia. She has won twice already. Yeah, uh Rose Byrne, if I had legs, I'd kick you. Jesse Buckley for Hamnet, Renate, Rheinzvey for Sentimental Value. That's the other sister in Sentimental Value, and Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue, a movie which I watched half of the other night with the wife and kids, and everybody was into it. Yeah, Sharon liked it.

SPEAKER_03 1:01:00

I I keep I keep I see it every time I turn on Peacock and I'm like, do I want to watch this movie?

SPEAKER_01 1:01:05

Oh, you definitely you definitely want to watch it.

SPEAKER_03 1:01:08

Well, I think my wife would like it, so I'm gonna try to watch it with her.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:11

You know, you can like it yourself. Nobody's questioning your masculinity.

SPEAKER_03 1:01:16

Dude, trust me, no one's no one, I don't question my own masculinity. It has nothing to do with that. I it I love Hugh Jackman. I love Hugh Jackman singing.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:24

There you go.

SPEAKER_03 1:01:25

So why so why do you think I don't know because I'm I don't give a shit about Neil Diamond. Word. I am I cry word all right if it was Elvis impur if they were you know an Elvis impersonator, I'd be all in.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:41

Speaking of Elvis, uh Baz Lerman has an Elvis documentary out that I want to see Max. It's all about late, it's all about late stage Elvis, and it's supposed to be incredible. Yeah, it's called documentary footage. And then the McCartney documentary just dropped as well, and it's really, really good. Yeah, I I cannot watch any more Beatles documentary. Well, I'm out. And you know that you know that the Beatles movies are coming, right? I'm out. Do you know about the Beatles movies? My wife can go see them herself.

SPEAKER_03 1:02:08

I feel like I've seen some something. Is it like a thing? They're doing like four biopic things. Yes, they're doing four biopic things.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:15

I don't need each beetle my life. It's just like I don't need more beatles in my life. I need less beatles in my life.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:21

That said, I watched a little bit, I watched about half the Paul McCartney thing, and just I love it. It's just everything. Did you see the thing? Well, you know what's funny? You know what's funny, and I should I should have saved this for a broomwagon or something. I watched just by chance, I found some I found some YouTube vid YouTube channel that does they do like these animations and like little explorations of famous buildings, and they did John Lennon and Yoko Ono's apartment at the Dakota, and they showed all this old footage and old photos of like the Dakota and them hanging out and all the press around them, and like everything about their entire like 10-year period that they lived there. And I I had just watched that, and then like a day later, I start the Paul, the Paul McCartney documentary, which starts at the same moment when the Beatles break up and Paul goes off to some crazy old, like broken down ramshackle uh cabin, like up on the northern coast of Scotland. Meanwhile, John Lennon's like living in a luxury apartment in Dakota with Yoko Ono in New York City. And watching these two two things back to back was like a really cool, very like coincidence, like did not plan it at all, and yet I was like, this is kind of cool.

SPEAKER_03 1:03:34

So wait, so it's this so it's it's a biopic of everything that happened to each of them after the Beatles broke up. That's how it works. No, no, no, that's something else. No, no, no.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:45

No, I'm talking about what I just watched. It's the origin story. Yeah, I have no interest in watching. Although, if they go all the way back to Quarryman, I might be interested.

SPEAKER_01 1:03:53

Trust me, I'll watch every minute of every one of those. We gotta move on. We're we're we're running out of time. Okay we're on to best actors, uh, Emma Stone, Rose Burns, Jesse Buckley, Renate Rheinsve, and Kate Hudson, Mark, make your pick. Well, Jesse's gonna win it.

SPEAKER_03 1:04:07

Yeah, Jesse Buckley's gonna win this.

SPEAKER_01 1:04:09

Come on. That was unbelievable. We're all we're all will win on Jesse Buckley. Does anybody does anybody want to say who should win?

SPEAKER_00 1:04:18

She should win. She should win. Although some people I haven't seen it, but they said uh Rose Bourne's really good.

SPEAKER_03 1:04:26

Matt really liked that performance. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:04:29

Yeah, and that is actually who I but again, that's another woman under stress.

SPEAKER_03 1:04:33

But I mean, you know, I I could easily say that, you know, uh Emma Stone also did a wonderful job in Begonia.

SPEAKER_01 1:04:41

I don't know. I think I you know, I I can't wait for my re rewatch of Begonia. Like I'm I'm dying to rewatch that movie. Um, I don't think she'll win. They're not gonna give it to her for that movie. No, no, she's got all that.

SPEAKER_03 1:04:54

Yeah, I think it's the wrong I think it's the wrong movie, and I think that Jesse Buckley's in the right movie, and it's a great performance.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:00

She's won everything.

SPEAKER_03 1:05:01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:02

Well, I'm giving it to Rose for Should and I'm giving it to Jesse for Will.

SPEAKER_00 1:05:07

Plus, I discovered Jesse Buckley in a film called Wild Rose in 2016. She said, Wow, she's great, and nobody's ever seen that film. Wild Rose. Yeah, no one's ever seen. Sharon and I went to see that at uh landmark. I said, Man, she's great in this interesting. So it's for her, it's also body work. That's you know, twelve, fifteen years. Oh boy.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:28

All right, well, we're zeroing in on our final two categories. Uh first we're gonna go with best director, and your nominees are Chloe Zhao for Hamnet. This is uh she's a one time winner, two time nominee, I believe. Um Ryan Kugler for Sinners, Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value, Josh Safty for Marty Supreme, and Paul Thomas Anderson, of course, for one battle after another. Justin, kick us off.

SPEAKER_03 1:05:57

I think it's a PTA all day.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:02

Why?

SPEAKER_03 1:06:04

Um because I'd I there's no chance they give it to to Josh Tafty. Um I don't think that I I don't I don't know. I could see Ryan Kugler, I just but I don't see this being the the movie that he wins for. I think that he could win at some point, but that's not this one. I think it's between PTA and Chloe Zow, and and I just think that it's PTA's year for it. I don't know. I just think this is the right it's the right movie for him to win for. And and because it's gonna get because it's not gonna win in other categories, it makes sense that it that it could win for this. That he could win for this.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:51

All right. Mark, your thoughts?

SPEAKER_00 1:06:54

Yeah, PTA is probably gonna win, but I'm telling you, I I'm picking up some kind of momentum shift towards sinners. But I I've been I'm not I'm really not sure how strong that momentum is. But my sense is that PTA play deserves it. Come on. It's incredible. But you know And he's never won before, right? And he's never won. See, that's the thing. He has to be a good one. That's why I said I think I think Kugler will win one. It's just not this one. But it's body of work, again. So PTA's been around for like what 30 years? He's never won. When was Boogie Knights? Come on. The body of work. Body of work is really important.

SPEAKER_02 1:07:36

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:07:36

You really have to get recognized sometime along your career. I'm gonna go with PTA should and will as well. We've got a lot of symmetry in our if he doesn't, I wouldn't be that damn surprised anymore.

SPEAKER_01 1:07:49

Alright, well that's gonna that's gonna take us up to the big one. Best picture. Uh it's been what how how long has it been since they increased this from five to ten nominees? Five, six years. Something like that. Yeah. So we've got ten nominees here. Of course, it was just an accident. Left off. The other big Oscar snub was uh was uh was Nuremberg. Why didn't anybody like Nuremberg? Yeah, nothing for Nuremberg. Um no, but but uh Paul uh Paul uh Mescal for uh Hamnet, a lot of people thought that was a big uh no not enough screen time.

SPEAKER_03 1:08:27

Nuremberg Nuremberg shows the mirror too much in this country. That's why that movie didn't that's why this that movie Oh absolutely there's too much there's too much white supremacy running through the through through the the you know the powers that be for them to shed light on that's why that the movie feels like it was buried.

SPEAKER_00 1:08:51

Interesting it was buried interesting, like globally.

SPEAKER_03 1:08:54

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:08:55

I think has I think it has to do with Gaza.

SPEAKER_03 1:08:58

I I just I just think that it it it it's it it would it's it's the wrong it's the wrong time for something like that.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:07

Who was the actor in that ramy malik?

SPEAKER_03 1:09:09

And uh Russell Crowe.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:11

Right.

SPEAKER_03 1:09:11

So that's a good movie. And Russell Crowe and Russell Crowe Russell Crowe gives a a a disgusting performance. Brilliant.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:19

Oh yeah, brilliant performance, but it's absolutely like you I mean, and you should want to hate him, but would this would this movie have been better with a different actor than Raimi Malik? He was good. I don't mind him, I don't mind him.

SPEAKER_03 1:09:32

I think he's a good actor. I think he's like kind of like Morgan Freeman, where he's just always playing Raimi Malik.

SPEAKER_00 1:09:38

I'm not gonna be happy until Michael Shannon wins the best actor award.

SPEAKER_03 1:09:41

There's a crime. I agree with you there.

SPEAKER_00 1:09:43

They're a total crime.

SPEAKER_03 1:09:44

Yeah, not that he cares.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:46

Well sooner or later. All right, go on. Let's get a picture. Let's get on to this. Your nominees for Best Picture are The Secret Agent, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, Train Dreams, F1, Sinners, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, and Sentimental Value. We've got six minutes. Justin, go.

SPEAKER_03 1:10:12

I think it's one battle after another. Um I think it's wild that F1 is on this list.

SPEAKER_01 1:10:20

It is wild.

SPEAKER_03 1:10:22

Uh but yeah, I think it's I think it's I think PTA is gonna win best director, and I think it's gonna win best picture, and I think it absolutely deserves it because it's a great movie and with great performances. And you know, I I don't think any of those performances were able to outshane any of the other, you know, performances, you know, this year, and so it's gonna win the best picture, it's gonna win best director.

SPEAKER_01 1:10:54

Who who won what what what won the uh the Globe, the BAFTA, the Globe and the BAFTA?

SPEAKER_03 1:11:01

Globe was one battle after another. It won one, but it's won everything. Yeah. I don't know. I don't have the BAFTA on here. I should have put that.

SPEAKER_00 1:11:10

Next time we do this, I'll make sure that I have that in the it was like a swig. The only thing that wasn't a swig was the actor awards where where sin has won Best Ensemble, which made people start to think there was maybe a momentum shift.

SPEAKER_03 1:11:25

And Tyana Taylor did win the supporting actress Golden Globe, but that's it. That's the only thing that's the only act there acting one that they have that they've won.

SPEAKER_01 1:11:34

So uh is that your pick, one battle as well?

SPEAKER_03 1:11:36

Yeah, and that's what I'm saying. I think they're gonna get snubbed across all the other acting categories, and that way you're gonna get the the they can justify the dual win of director and best picture.

SPEAKER_00 1:11:47

But I gotta say, don't like you say, don't sleep on sinners. I know. It's a great movie. There's a lot of energy there.

unknown 1:11:56

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:11:58

All right, a lot of energy in Hollywood for that one.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:02

Fuck it. I will be contrarian and I will say that one battle should win, and I will pick the Academy picking Sinners. See?

SPEAKER_00 1:12:10

Will win. Do you feel that like there's something going on?

SPEAKER_01 1:12:13

We gotta have representation in our group here. So something going on. Let's make let's make things interesting. There's something going on.

SPEAKER_00 1:12:21

There's something going on with Sinners in the town. Something going on. When Viola Davis, like when she, you know, when she read that thing on the Actors Awards, I mean that was unbelievable. Nobody was expecting that, which is fine. I like upsets.

SPEAKER_03 1:12:37

This will be the first time, and I can't tell you how long that I'm actually invested in who wins an Oscar.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:44

Oh, it's gonna be so fun. All right, let's have an on-air production meeting right now. We've got three minutes left. On-air production meeting. An on-air production? What does that mean? We're gonna we're gonna.

SPEAKER_03 1:12:55

We talk about something we're gonna do in the future.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:57

What is the prize for this contest? For this contest? Yes, we'll come up with a prize for who gets the most picks. For for will win. Not should win, but for for who gets the most right, we'll pick.

SPEAKER_00 1:13:08

Oh, we should win.

SPEAKER_01 1:13:09

We will win. What's the prize? I don't know. Who they will win a prize. Trophy? Do we make a trophy? We can we can do we get an Oscar trophy? Does somebody get an Oscar? Let's do that. We can get it. We can get a few. I know somebody opens a trophy shop hanging around. He's got a trophy guy. I got a trophy guy. Of course. Mark said, all right. End of story. You can't make a trophy guy. We'll talk to him. I'm sure he can. I mean, you can buy little fake plastic Oscars to get. There's at least two of them upstairs in my daughter's room right now. Can you buy a fake Oscar?

SPEAKER_00 1:13:47

What does the industry think about that?

SPEAKER_01 1:13:49

Hold on. Here we go. Let's see.

SPEAKER_00 1:13:53

I love these people who sell their Oscars because they're broke. You know, these stories, these famous stories about people like in the toilet and they sell their Oscar. You know how heavy those things are? Here we go. Ten you know who the Oscar is named after? Who? Betty Davis' uh uh husband. Really?

SPEAKER_02 1:14:12

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:14:13

Tell us the story of that in the in the last two minutes of the show. I don't know the whole story. It's really true. And when she looked at it, she said, Yeah, that's him.

SPEAKER_03 1:14:22

Oh, because they like just made the statue, and then she was like, that looks like my husband Oscar.

SPEAKER_00 1:14:28

Yeah, but there was no, let's say it was not realistic. Yeah, that's him. I love it. I love it.

SPEAKER_03 1:14:37

That's awesome.

SPEAKER_00 1:14:38

Oh, you know the Shelly Winters story? This is a great story. You got a couple of sex. Shelly and a half.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:44

Yeah, you got a six.

SPEAKER_00 1:14:45

I can do it. Shelly Shelly Winters goes for an audition, probably in the 70s, 60s. And the guy who's auditioning her is like in his thirties. And she says to him, he says to her this is apocryphal, but I think it really happened. He sh he said, uh, what have you know, what have you been in? You know, what is your experience? And she has this bag with her, and she pulls out one Oscar, and an Oscar Oscar said, Dan's my 30s. I love that. What does that happen? I don't care if it's true or not, but it's a great glory. Oh my god. Brad Steiger used to say he'd audition for people who like who they're like in their 30s. He said, I'm auditioning for people who could be my grandchildren. I mean, it just amazes me.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:37

All right. All right, well, listen, listen, we're gonna talk we're gonna talk to Mark's trophy guy, but I think I've just learned something here in the past 30 seconds uh with a quick little Google search. The Oscars must have the actual trophy copyrighted because the actual Oscar trophy, it's like two hands on top of each other, and you can't buy a trophy that looks like that anywhere on Amazon. Well, don't go ahead. It's been a great show. We're gonna do this again next year. Mark, thanks for joining us. I'm still here. We'll catch you next time, folks. Beyond the slipstream is a companion to the team bus and is produced by Harporama. Find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. Please like, subscribe, leave a review, and tell your friends about us. Thanks for listening. Talk to you next time.